How to Survive the Chop Each Week, Even With the Worst Team
By Patrick · Survive The Chop ·
If your team has the lowest projection in your league this week, don't panic. You'll probably still survive. In 18-team leagues this season, the lowest projected team survived 87.8% of the time in Weeks 1 to 5. That's about 7 weeks out of 8.
Being last on paper does raise your risk. If every team had the same chance, each would survive 93.6% of the time. But scores swing so much from week to week that the team that gets chopped is often someone else. So a bad projection isn't a reason to make desperate moves you'd regret later. Here's what 2025 and 2026 guillotine leagues show about the chop.
The lowest projected team usually survives
Each week we took the team with the lowest projected lineup in each league and checked whether it was chopped. The first row is 2026, Weeks 1 to 5. The 2026 season hasn't reached the other rows yet, so they come from 2025.
| Teams left | If every team were equal | Lowest projected team survived |
|---|---|---|
| 14 to 18 | 93.6% | 87.8% |
| 10 to 13 | 91.2% | 76.8% |
| 7 to 9 | 87.4% | 74.7% |
| 4 to 6 | 77.5% | 65.9% |
| 2 or 3 | 58.3% | 40.2% |
The odds get worse as the league shrinks, because there are fewer teams left to finish below. Even with 4 to 6 teams left, the lowest projected team survived about 2 weeks in 3 (65.9%). Only in the last 2 or 3 weeks does the weakest team usually go.
Why the worst team on paper often survives
A projection is the middle of a wide range. In 2025, a lineup projected for 100 points scored anywhere from about 77 to 134 in 8 weeks out of 10. Two teams 10 points apart on Tuesday can easily swap places by Monday night.
So the chop often lands somewhere unexpected. In 2025, about 1 in 3 chopped teams had a projection in the top half of their league that week.
Most chops are close, too. Half the time, the chopped team finished within 10 points of the team above it. 28.5% of chops came down to less than 5 points.
Where the cut line falls
You don't need a good week to survive. You need to beat one team. In the first 8 weeks of 2025, the chopped team scored about two thirds of the league's middle score.
| Part of the season | Chopped team | Next-lowest team | Middle of the league |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1 to 4 | 68.5 | 77.7 | 103.4 |
| Weeks 5 to 8 | 76.4 | 87.9 | 114.0 |
| Weeks 9 to 12 | 87.5 | 99.6 | 121.3 |
| Weeks 13 to 17 | 110.4 | 130.8 | 139.9 |
These are typical scores from 18-team full-PPR leagues in 2025. In half-PPR leagues the cut line was about 4 to 11 points lower.
The line rises all season. Weak teams leave, and the teams still alive pick up the best players from each chopped roster. In Weeks 1 to 4, a typical chop came at about 69 points. By Weeks 13 to 17 it was about 110. A score that was safe in September can get you chopped in December.
A close call doesn't mean you're next
If you barely survived last week, you're not doomed this week. In 2025, the team that finished just above the chopped team survived the next week 87.5% of the time while 10 or more teams were left. An average team survived 92.4%.
How well our Survival Odds hold up
Survival Odds in our app gives every team in your league a chance to survive the week. We checked those chances against who actually got chopped. Across all 10,299 teams this season, the average chance we showed was 93.4%, and 93.4% survived.
Most teams started a week between 90% and 95%. We showed those 5,761 teams 93.2% on average, and 92.4% survived. Teams we gave 85% to 90% did a little better than we said: 90.2% survived.
| Chance we showed | Teams | Average chance | Survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% to 90% | 755 | 88.2% | 90.2% |
| 90% to 95% | 5,761 | 93.2% | 92.4% |
| 95% and up | 3,511 | 95.9% | 96.6% |
Only 272 teams started a week below 85% this season, too few to check each band yet. Our 2025 replay had enough: in every 5-point band from 50% up, the share that survived was within 1.6 points of the chance we showed.
How to survive the chop each week
Don't panic. Being last on paper doesn't call for desperate moves, like dumping your FAAB on a one-week fix or cutting a player you'll want later in the season. You'll most likely survive the week anyway, so don't make a move you'd regret in a month.
Start your best lineup and check it before the first game. Injuries and late news change who should play. With so many chops decided by a few points, one empty spot can be the difference.
Aim for the cut line, not first place. You only need to beat one team. A steady week is usually enough.
Don't overreact to a close call. Last week's near miss survived the next week about 7 times in 8.
Keep improving your roster. The cut line rises all season, so a lineup that's safe now may not be safe later. How much FAAB to bid has real prices by week.
See your chance this week
Connect your Sleeper league. Survival Odds shows your chance to survive this week, how your risk compares with the rest of your league, and the range of scores your lineup could put up. These are chances, not bidding advice. Start with 7 days of free access. No credit card required.
Already connected? Open Survival Odds.
About this data
2026 numbers use the last Survival Odds forecast made before each week's first game, for Weeks 1 to 5, in 331 Sleeper guillotine leagues connected to Survive The Chop (197 of them with 18 teams). That's 10,299 team-weeks. A league counts in a week when someone opened Survival Odds before that week's first game. We compared each forecast with Sleeper's record of who was chopped, and left out weeks where a league chopped more than one team or none.
2025 numbers come from 457 Sleeper guillotine leagues that chopped one team each week. We replayed the same pre-game formula Survival Odds uses on each week's rosters and 2025 weekly projections, then compared it with who was actually chopped. That's 35,865 team-weeks. We used Weeks 3, 6 to 12 and 14 to 17, the weeks where the saved projections were made before the games. The replay gave every team the same points for its kicker and defense.
The lowest projected team is the team with the lowest projected lineup that week. Across every league size this season, it survived 86.8% of the time. The lowest projected team table uses 18-team leagues only.
The cut line and close calls use actual scores from every week of 2025 in 3,488 league-weeks of 18-team full-PPR leagues. The middle of the league is the median score of the teams still alive.
The accuracy table shows 5-point bands with at least 500 teams. Below 85% this season there were 272 teams in all, including 6 below 50%.