Week 4 Guillotine FAAB: Who Got Chopped and What We'd Bid
By Patrick · Survive The Chop ·
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jonathan Taylor are the two players we'd target this week. If either one hit your waiver wire, we'd bid 15–20% of your starting budget on St. Brown and 12–15% on Taylor.
Expect both to go for a lot more than that. Last week, Bijan Robinson sold for a median of 68% of a starting budget when we had him at 15–20%. So this week the bid guide shows two numbers: what a player is worth to your team, and what it will likely take to win him.
We're sticking with our numbers. It's Week 4, and your budget has to last through a lot more cuts. If another manager wants to spend half their budget on one player now, let them. You don't need to win every auction to build the best team.
Week 4 bid guide
Both numbers are a percentage of your starting FAAB budget. On a $1,000 budget, 15% is $150. We assume PPR scoring and one starting quarterback.
| Player | Our bid | Likely winning price | Best fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 15–20% | about 45% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| Jonathan Taylor | 12–15% | about 50% | A lead back with a full workload |
| CeeDee Lamb | 12–15% | about 40% | A WR1, if your league released him |
| Chase Brown | 10–12% | about 35% | A steady starting running back |
| Ashton Jeanty | 10–12% | about 35% | The same case as Brown |
| Trey McBride | 8–10% | about 35% | The most reliable tight end here |
| Josh Allen | 8–12% | about 20% | Only if quarterback is a weak spot |
| Saquon Barkley | 5–8% | about 30% | Running back help for less |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5–8% | about 25% | Tight end help, with some quiet weeks |
Go toward the top of a range if you're close to the chopping block. Stay near the bottom if your lineup is safe. Set a total before you enter several claims.
Waiver bids are blind, and not every league has a big spender. So bid your number even when the likely price is much higher. If it lands, you got a starter at a good price. If it doesn't, your FAAB plan can show you cheaper players who fill the same spot.
Where the likely prices come from. Our weekly FAAB price report shows what winners actually paid for last week's chopped players. Brown, Jeanty, McBride, Barkley and Kincaid all sold last week, so their likely price comes straight from that report. For everyone else, it's the app's market estimate for a player at the same position and rank.
Put your bids into a FAAB plan
In FAAB Insights, select targets from your league's available players and open Review plan. You'll see suggested drops, maximum spend, FAAB left and a projected lineup outlook. Adjust your selections, then enter the claims on Sleeper.
Our ranges are editorial guidance informed by FAAB Insights. Your personalized app recommendation can differ with your roster, budget and strategy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: our top target
Our bid: 15–20% · Likely winning price: about 45% · Rest-of-season rank: WR3
St. Brown is a WR1 you can start every week for the rest of the season. We rank him WR3 and project 19.3 PPR points this week.
Week 3 was quiet. He caught 4 passes for 19 yards and a touchdown. He still got 8 targets. The week before, he had 9 catches for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He gets our biggest range because he can help you every week the rest of the way.
Jonathan Taylor: the workload is there
Our bid: 12–15% · Likely winning price: about 50% · Rest-of-season rank: RB5
Taylor is the running back we'd target first. He had 23 carries in Week 3 and played 85% of Indianapolis's snaps. The week before, he had 24 carries and 29.2 PPR points.
We project him for 19.4 PPR points this week. His range sits just below St. Brown's because we rank St. Brown higher for the rest of the season.
His likely price is the highest in this guide. The 4 most expensive players in last week's report were all running backs.
Chase Brown, Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley: next on our list
Our bids: 10–12%, 10–12% and 5–8% · Likely winning prices: about 35%, 35% and 30% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB9, RB8 and RB13
If St. Brown and Taylor aren't on your wire, these backs are next. All 3 were chopped in Week 2 too, so we know what they go for. Brown and Jeanty sold for about 35% of a starting budget last week. Barkley sold for 30%.
Brown played 70% of Cincinnati's snaps for the second straight week. Jeanty played 84% of Las Vegas's snaps and had 19 carries. We project 17.3 PPR points for Brown and 16.3 for Jeanty.
Barkley gets a smaller range. He's past the stinger that limited him to 12 snaps in Week 2, and he ran 15 times for 82 yards in Week 3. But we've moved him down to RB13, and we project 14.8 points this week.
Tight ends: McBride and Kincaid
Our bids: 8–10% and 5–8% · Likely winning prices: about 35% and 25% · Rest-of-season ranks: TE2 and TE3
McBride is the steadier tight end. He had 11 targets and 9 catches in Week 3 and played 91% of Arizona's snaps. We project 16.0 PPR points this week.
Kincaid was chopped in more leagues than any other tight end, 15.5% of our sample. He's been up and down. He scored 22.5 PPR points in Week 2, then 3.8 in Week 3 on 3 targets. We project 12.3 points this week.
Go toward the top of either range only if tight end is your weakest spot.
Injuries to check before you bid
De'Von Achane tore his ACL on Sunday and is out for the season. He was chopped in 18.6% of our sample, more than any other running back. NFL.com.
Justin Jefferson was chopped again, in 14.8% of our sample. He sprained his ankle in the first quarter against Tampa Bay. Imaging showed no long-term damage, and he could play this week against Miami. ESPN. We rank him WR6 for the rest of the season and would bid 10–12%. He sold for a median of 40% last week.
Puka Nacua (hip) and Nico Collins (hamstring) are listed out again. Wait for a practice report before you bid. A.J. Brown is on injured reserve with an ankle injury.
Jalen Coker (quadriceps) is listed out, and Tyjae Spears (ankle) is questionable.
Quarterbacks: keep it small unless it's Josh Allen
In a one-QB league, keep quarterback bids to 1–3% unless your starter is hurt. The upgrade over your current starter is usually small.
Drake Maye was chopped more than any player, in 18.9% of our sample. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson were chopped too. Quarterbacks still sold high last week. Jackson went for 30% and Hurts for 20%.
Josh Allen is the exception. He's our QB1, and we project 22.7 points this week. If quarterback is a weak spot, we'd bid 8–12%. He took a hit to his left knee late in the Week 3 win over the Chargers and is listed questionable. Early reports point to a bruise. RotoWire.
In Superflex, all four are starters and worth more.
It's still early
Across the 2025 Sleeper leagues we analyzed, eventual champions had spent about 24% of their starting FAAB by Week 5, on average. That's roughly 35% less than the teams still competing at that point. We covered this in our Week 2 FAAB guide.
One win at last week's prices would use more than that on a single player. That's why we stay near our ranges this early. Fix the spot that could get you chopped, and keep the rest for the cuts still to come.
Who hit waivers after Week 3?
These are selected notable players from our verified Sleeper cut sample. Percentages show the share of completed Week 3 cuts that released each player, including bench and reserve players.
| Player | Share of verified cuts |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 18.9% |
| De'Von Achane | 18.6% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.5% |
| Justin Jefferson | 14.8% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 13.6% |
| Bucky Irving | 13.2% |
| Omarion Hampton | 12.9% |
| Puka Nacua | 12.9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 12.3% |
| Jalen Hurts | 11.7% |
| Nico Collins | 11.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 10.1% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 9.8% |
| Josh Allen | 9.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9.5% |
| Saquon Barkley | 9.1% |
These percentages describe verified releases as of midday Tuesday. Availability depends on your league, its cut timing and any claims that have already processed.
Build your team's FAAB plan
Start with the players your league actually released. Then decide how much to commit to each claim and how much you want left for future cuts. Your FAAB plan brings those decisions together with suggested drops and a projected lineup outlook.
Connect your Sleeper league for personalized recommendations based on your roster, available players and remaining FAAB. The article is free; the paid app brings the advice to your team.
Already connected? Review my FAAB plan.
About these recommendations
Ranks and projections use our September 29 Week 4 PPR update. Our bid ranges are editorial recommendations informed by FAAB Insights, not universal limits. Check current injuries, league settings and your combined spending before placing claims.
Likely winning prices describe what other managers may pay, not what we recommend. They are estimates, not guarantees. Where a player appears in last week's price report, we use his median winning bid there. Otherwise we use the app's market estimate, built from 2025 FAAB prices for players at the same position and rank, for an 18-team league with 15 teams left. In Week 3, the actual median price for each of the 7 players we checked fell inside the middle half of that estimate.
Cut percentages come from completed Sleeper chop transactions that we matched to the lowest Week 3 score among teams still active and to a cleared roster. Leagues with more than 18 teams, more than one chop this week, or no completed release are excluded, as are leagues whose cut had not processed when we collected the sample. This is a sample of leagues that use our app, not a Sleeper-wide rate.
Snap counts, targets and box-score lines come from Sleeper's public game stats. Injury designations are the ones listed on Sleeper as of Tuesday, plus the reports linked above.
The historical spending analysis uses completed 2025 native Sleeper Chopped leagues with verified champions and reconciled FAAB records. It includes different league sizes and measures spending before the Week 5 chop. We compare champions with all teams still competing at that checkpoint, averaging within each league and giving each league equal weight. The 35% figure is a relative difference in spending, not 35 percentage points of the starting budget. These are observational results, not proof that a bidding strategy caused a championship.