Week 7 Guillotine FAAB: Who Got Chopped and What We'd Bid
By Patrick · Survive The Chop ·
These bids use early Week 7 projections. For bids built for your own roster on the latest projections, check the app this afternoon.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua are the two players we'd target this week. If Gibbs hit your waiver wire, we'd bid 19–23% of your starting budget on him. For Nacua, we'd bid 18–22%.
Expect the best players to go for a lot more than that. Last week, Bijan Robinson sold for a median of 60% of a starting budget. So for each player, the bid guide shows what he's worth to your team and what it will likely take to win him.
Not every pick is a long shot. Below the bid guide, we list four players where our bid already matches the likely price.
Week 7 bid guide
Both numbers are a percentage of your starting FAAB budget. On a $1,000 budget, 15% is $150. We assume PPR scoring and one starting quarterback.
| Player | Our bid | Likely winning price | Best fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19–23% | about 30% (estimate) | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Puka Nacua | 18–22% | about 20% (estimate) | A WR1 you can start every week |
| Bijan Robinson | 17–20% | about 60% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 15–18% | about 40% | A WR1 back from his bye |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 15–18% | about 40% | A WR1 back from his bye |
| CeeDee Lamb | 13–15% | about 40% | A starting receiver |
| Derrick Henry | 12–14% | about 50% | A starting running back |
| Kyren Williams | 11–13% | about 40% | A starting running back |
| Zay Flowers | 10–12% | about 30% | A starting receiver |
| Justin Jefferson | 9–11% | about 30% | A starting receiver |
| Drake London | 9–11% | about 30% | A starting receiver |
| Trey McBride | 6–7% | about 35% | A top tight end |
| Brock Bowers | 6–7% | about 40% | A top tight end |
Robinson went for 60% and Henry for 51% last week. We wouldn't pay that this early.
Go toward the top of a range if you're close to the chopping block. Stay near the bottom if your lineup is safe. Set a total before you enter several claims.
Waiver bids are blind, and not every league has a big spender. So bid your number even when the likely price is much higher. If it lands, you got a starter at a good price. If it doesn't, your FAAB plan can show you cheaper players who fill the same spot.
Why our bids look low. As the league's FAAB drains, prices fall toward our numbers. In 2025, by Weeks 12 to 14, a bid of a fifth of the league's average FAAB would have won about 4 in 9 top-5 running back and receiver auctions. We go through the numbers in Why our FAAB bids look low.
Where the likely prices come from. Our weekly FAAB price report shows what winners actually paid in last week's waivers. Robinson, Chase, St. Brown, Lamb, Henry, Williams, Flowers, Jefferson, London, McBride and Bowers all sold last week, so their likely price comes straight from that report. For Gibbs and Nacua, it's the app's estimate of what a player at the same position and rank sells for when other teams also bid.
Put your bids into a FAAB plan
In FAAB Insights, select targets from your league's available players and open Review plan. You'll see suggested drops, maximum spend, FAAB left and a projected lineup outlook. Adjust your selections, then enter the claims on Sleeper.
Our ranges are editorial guidance informed by FAAB Insights. Your personalized app recommendation can differ with your roster, budget and strategy.
Players you can win
For these four, our bid is at or above the likely winning price. Each has a real chance of landing at our number.
| Player | Our bid | Likely winning price | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 10–11% | about 10% | WR10 for the rest of the season |
| Jaylen Warren | 5–6% | about 5% | Pittsburgh's lead running back |
| Garrett Wilson | 3–4% | about 3% | The Jets' top target |
| Jordan Love | 2–3% | about 2% | A starting quarterback upgrade |
Christian Watson caught 6 passes for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 5, then played 88% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 6. We project 16.4 PPR points this week.
Jaylen Warren scored 36.8 PPR points in Week 5, with 101 rushing yards and 87 receiving yards. He played 75% of Pittsburgh's snaps in Week 6. We project 16.1 PPR points.
Garrett Wilson had 11 targets, 104 yards and a touchdown in Week 5, and played 98% of the Jets' snaps in Week 6. We project 16.0 PPR points.
Jordan Love threw for 367 yards in Week 5 and 276 in Week 6. He sold for 2% last week. Only bid if your quarterback is a weak spot.
Watson, Warren and Wilson didn't sell in last week's waivers, so their likely price is the app's estimate.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua: our top targets
Our bids: 19–23% and 18–22% · Likely winning prices: about 30% and 20% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB1 and WR1
Gibbs is our top running back for the rest of the season. He ran 25 times for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 5, then had a bye. We project 22.1 PPR points this week. In Week 5 waivers, he sold for 72%.
Nacua had 24 targets, 17 catches and 138 yards in Week 5. In Week 6 he played 90% of the Rams' snaps. We project 22.1 PPR points this week. Sleeper lists Davante Adams out, which could mean even more targets.
Their likely prices are the app's estimates. Top players sold above the estimate last week: Robinson went for 60%, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 52%.
Bijan Robinson: sold high last week
Our bid: 17–20% · Likely winning price: about 60% · Rest-of-season rank: RB3
Robinson played 78% of Atlanta's snaps in Week 6. We project 20.3 PPR points this week. He was the most expensive player in last week's waivers, at 60%.
Chase and St. Brown: back from byes
Our bids: 15–18% each · Likely winning prices: about 40% each · Rest-of-season ranks: WR2 and WR4
Ja'Marr Chase had 10 targets, 77 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 targets that week. Both had a bye in Week 6. We project 19.0 PPR points for Chase and 19.3 for St. Brown this week. They sold for 42% and 40% last week.
CeeDee Lamb is a step below, at 13–15%. He had 18 targets in Week 6, and we project 17.9 PPR points this week. He sold for 42% last week.
Running backs: Henry and Williams
Our bids: 12–14% and 11–13% · Likely winning prices: about 50% and 40% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB5 and RB8
Derrick Henry was chopped in 17.9% of our sample. Among running backs, only Cam Skattebo was chopped more often. Henry ran 24 times for 102 yards in Week 5. We project 17.4 PPR points this week. He sold for 51% last week.
Kyren Williams played 72% of the Rams' snaps in Week 6. We project 18.5 PPR points this week. He sold for 39% last week.
Tight ends: McBride and Bowers
Our bids: 6–7% each · Likely winning prices: about 35% and 40% · Rest-of-season ranks: TE2 and TE1
Trey McBride played 97% of Arizona's snaps in Week 6. Brock Bowers had 10 targets and 110 yards in Week 5. They sold for 35% and 40% last week. Go toward the top of our range only if tight end is your weakest spot.
Juwan Johnson was chopped more than any player, in 19.4% of our sample. Harold Fannin was chopped in 14.7%. Both sold for 3% last week. Keep bids on them to 1% or less.
Injuries to check before you bid
Quinshon Judkins was chopped in 13.8% of our sample. Sleeper lists him out with a foot injury, so we left him out of the bid guide.
A.J. Brown is listed questionable with an ankle injury. He had 10 targets but only 3 catches in Week 6. We'd bid 7–9% if your receivers are thin. He sold for 11% last week.
Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall and Rashee Rice are all listed out. Only bid on them if you can wait.
On bye this week: Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington
A player you claim from those teams won't score for you this week.
Josh Allen was chopped in about 1 in 9 leagues. He's still our QB1 for the rest of the season, and we'd bid 4–6%. He sold for 36% last week. Only bid on him if your lineup is safe this week.
Quarterbacks: keep it small
In a one-QB league, keep quarterback bids small unless your starter is hurt. The upgrade over your current starter is usually small.
Drake Maye is our QB2 for the rest of the season. He threw for 374 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 5. We'd bid 5–7%. He sold for 7% last week.
Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes were each chopped in about 1 in 7 leagues. Keep them to about 1%. They sold for 6% and 5% last week.
In Superflex, quarterbacks are starters and worth more.
It's still early
You don't need to win every auction to build the best team. In 2025, about 2 in 3 guillotine champions got their first top-5 running back or receiver in Week 9 or later. The median one they bought in Weeks 9 to 11 cost 11% of the starting budget. Read more in What 2025 guillotine champions did with their FAAB.
In our app, the League Overview page shows every team's chance to win your league, based on roster strength, points so far and FAAB left. If yours is near the top, you're in good shape, and you don't need to win every auction to build the best team. Connect your Sleeper league to see yours.
For what players actually sold for at each point in the season, see How much FAAB to bid in a guillotine league.
Who hit waivers after Week 6?
These are selected notable players from our verified Sleeper cut sample. Percentages show the share of completed Week 6 cuts that released each player, including bench and reserve players.
| Player | Share of verified cuts |
|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 19.4% |
| Cam Skattebo | 18.2% |
| Derrick Henry | 17.9% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 17.4% |
| Harold Fannin | 14.7% |
| Bucky Irving | 14.0% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 13.8% |
| Dak Prescott | 13.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 13.5% |
| Michael Wilson | 13.3% |
| Justin Jefferson | 12.5% |
| A.J. Brown | 12.3% |
| Bijan Robinson | 12.0% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11.8% |
| Josh Allen | 10.6% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10.1% |
| Kyren Williams | 10.1% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | 9.1% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8.8% |
| Trey McBride | 8.8% |
| Puka Nacua | 8.6% |
| Christian Watson | 7.9% |
As of Tuesday morning. These percentages describe verified releases when we collected the sample. Availability depends on your league, its cut timing and any claims that have already processed.
Build your team's FAAB plan
Start with the players your league actually released. Then decide how much to commit to each claim and how much you want left for future cuts. Your FAAB plan brings those decisions together with suggested drops and a projected lineup outlook.
Connect your Sleeper league for personalized recommendations based on your roster, available players and remaining FAAB. The article is free; the paid app brings the advice to your team.
Already connected? Review my FAAB plan.
About these recommendations
Ranks and projections use our early Week 7 PPR update from October 19 and 20. Our bid ranges are editorial recommendations informed by FAAB Insights, not universal limits. Check current injuries, league settings and your combined spending before placing claims.
Likely winning prices describe what other managers may pay, not what we recommend. They are estimates, not guarantees. Where a player appears in last week's price report, we use his median winning bid there. Otherwise we use the app's market estimate: the median winning bid in 2025 auctions where other teams also bid, for players at the same position and rank, in an 18-team league with 12 teams left.
Cut percentages come from completed Sleeper chop transactions that we matched to the lowest Week 6 score among teams still active and to a cleared roster. Leagues with more than 18 teams, more than one chop this week, or no completed release are excluded, as are leagues whose cut had not processed when we collected the sample. This is a sample of leagues that use our app, not a Sleeper-wide rate.
Snap counts, targets and box-score lines come from Sleeper's public game stats. Injury designations are the ones listed on Sleeper as of Tuesday morning.