Week 10 Guillotine FAAB: Who Got Chopped and What We'd Bid
By Patrick · Survive The Chop ·
If Jahmyr Gibbs hit your waiver wire, he's our top bid again. We'd bid 19–23% of your starting budget on him. Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Walker III are next at 18–22% and 17–21%.
The player you're most likely to see who plays this week is Josh Allen, chopped in about 1 in 5 leagues after a quiet Monday night. D'Andre Swift was chopped even more often, but Chicago is on bye.
Prices fell again last week, and some of the biggest names still cost more than we'd pay. We expect Gibbs to go for about 29% of a starting budget. McCaffrey is closer, at about 21%. That's why the bid guide has two numbers. The first is what he's worth to your team. The second is what it will likely take to win him.
Below the bid guide are five players where our bid is at or above the likely price.
Week 10 bid guide
Both numbers are a percentage of your starting FAAB budget. On a $1,000 budget, 15% is $150. We assume PPR scoring and one starting quarterback.
These bids use Tuesday morning projections. For bids built for your own roster on the latest projections, check the app this afternoon.
| Player | Our bid | Likely price this week | Best fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 19–23% | about 29% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Christian McCaffrey | 18–22% | about 21% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Kenneth Walker III | 17–21% | about 23% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 16–19% | about 27% | A WR1, with a backup quarterback this week |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 16–19% | about 21% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 14–17% | about 19% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| CeeDee Lamb | 14–17% | about 20% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| Bijan Robinson | 14–17% | about 25% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Chuba Hubbard | 13–16% | about 12% | A starting running back |
| Chris Olave | 12–15% | about 11% | A starting receiver |
| James Cook III | 12–14% | about 16% | A starting running back |
| Jonathan Taylor | 8–10% | about 17% | A starting running back |
| Drake London | 8–10% | about 11% | A starting receiver |
| Derrick Henry | 8–10% | about 5% | A starting running back |
These are estimates, built from what last year's prices did between Weeks 9 and 10. That's last year's pattern, not a promise.
Gibbs and Smith-Njigba will likely go for about 29% and 27%. We wouldn't pay that this early.
Go toward the top of a range if you're close to the chopping block. Stay near the bottom if your lineup is safe. Set a total before you enter several claims.
Waiver bids are blind, and not every league has a big spender. So bid your number even when the likely price is much higher. If it lands, you got a starter at a good price. If it doesn't, your FAAB plan can show you cheaper players who fill the same spot.
If you've been saving your FAAB, it's about to pay off. A lot of you have held back all season and lost some auctions because of it. That's frustrating, but it was the plan. Over the next few weeks, the teams with FAAB left start winning more players, and our bids take your FAAB position into account.
Why our bids look low. As the league's FAAB drains, prices fall toward our numbers. In 2025, by Weeks 12 to 14, a bid of a fifth of the league's average FAAB would have won about 4 in 9 top-5 running back and receiver auctions. We go through the numbers in Why our FAAB bids look low.
Likely prices are our estimates of what it will take to win each player this week, built from our weekly FAAB price report.
How prices have moved this season
Prices fell again in last week's waivers. Top-3 running backs dropped from 43% of the starting budget to 33%. Running backs ranked 13 to 24 went from 8% to 5%, and top-6 tight ends from 6% to 4%.
This season is still close to last season. In 5 of our 8 player groups, last week's price was within 2 points of what the same group sold for in Week 9 of 2025. Receivers ranked 4 to 12 are the furthest off, at 16% against 11%.
Last season's prices from here
Last year, prices kept falling from this point. By Week 11 of 2025, top-3 running backs were selling for 20%, and receivers ranked 4 to 12 for 8%. Here's each group's price last week, next to what the same group sold for in Weeks 9, 10 and 11 last year.
| Player group | This season, Week 9 | 2025, Week 9 | 2025, Week 10 | 2025, Week 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-3 running backs | 33% | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Running backs ranked 4–12 | 20% | 18% | 14% | 6% |
| Running backs ranked 13–24 | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| Top-3 receivers | 33% | 30% | 20% | 17% |
| Receivers ranked 4–12 | 16% | 11% | 8% | 8% |
| Receivers ranked 13–24 | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| Top-6 tight ends | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| Top-12 quarterbacks | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
That's last year's pattern, not a promise. The 2025 prices come from 206 completed leagues. We don't have 2025 rest-of-season rankings, so those groups use each player's average weekly ranking.
To see every week side by side, read How guillotine FAAB prices have changed this season. The same charts are in the app, under Market Prices in FAAB Insights.
Players you can win
For these five, our bid is at or above the likely winning price. Each has a real chance of landing at our number.
| Player | Our bid | Likely price this week | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 13–16% | about 13% | A WR1 who plays Thursday |
| Justin Jefferson | 9–11% | about 7% | A top receiver with a backup quarterback |
| George Kittle | 6–7% | about 5% | A top-3 tight end |
| Breece Hall | 5–6% | about 1% | A lead back one game into his return |
| Chase Brown | 5–6% | about 4% | A running back who catches passes |
Malik Nabers is the biggest name on this list. He plays Thursday, so he'd go into your lineup right after waivers run. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 43 yards in Week 9 and was chopped in 13.3% of our sample.
Justin Jefferson is cheap because of his quarterback. He caught 3 of 11 targets for 58 yards on Monday night, with Carson Wentz starting in place of Kyler Murray (hamstring). He's still our WR8 for the rest of the season.
George Kittle caught 4 of 7 targets for 58 yards in Week 9, his first game back from San Francisco's bye. We project 16.3 PPR points, the most of any tight end here.
Breece Hall has the biggest gap between our bid and the likely price. He came back in Week 9 with 15 carries for 61 yards and 3 catches. His estimate comes from sales while he was hurt, so it could be low.
Chase Brown had 9 carries for 57 yards and 3 catches in Week 9, after 9 targets the week before.
Jahmyr Gibbs: our top bid
Our bid: 19–23% · Likely price this week: about 29% · Rest-of-season rank: RB1
Gibbs is our RB1 for the rest of the season, and he was chopped in 14.1% of our sample. He ran 20 times for 74 yards and a touchdown in Week 9 but didn't catch a pass. We project 21.2 PPR points, the most of any running back here.
Put in your 19–23% and see if it lands.
McCaffrey, Walker and Robinson
Our bids: 18–22%, 17–21% and 14–17% · Likely prices this week: about 21%, 23% and 25% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB2, RB3 and RB4
McCaffrey is the star where our bid has a real chance, because his likely price sits inside our range. In Week 9, his first game back from San Francisco's bye, he ran 18 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass. He was chopped in 6.0% of our sample.
Walker scored 3 touchdowns in Week 9. He ran 18 times for 102 yards and one of them, and caught 4 passes for 41 yards and the other two. Patrick Mahomes is day to day with an elbow injury, so check Kansas City's report before you bid.
Robinson got back to catching passes. He had 19 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, plus 6 catches for 47 yards.
Receivers: Smith-Njigba, Chase, St. Brown and Lamb
Our bids: 16–19%, 16–19%, 14–17% and 14–17% · Likely prices this week: about 27%, 21%, 19% and 20% · Rest-of-season ranks: WR1, WR2, WR3 and WR4
Smith-Njigba was chopped in 17.7% of our sample. Seattle played Week 9 without Sam Darnold, and Smith-Njigba caught 7 of 10 targets for 51 yards. Darnold is out again this week with quad and rib injuries, and Drew Lock is expected to start.
Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, after 141 yards the week before. We project 20.4 PPR points, the most of any receiver here.
St. Brown caught 8 of 10 targets for 86 yards in Week 9. He was chopped in 12.3% of our sample.
Lamb caught 10 of 16 targets for 195 yards and a touchdown in Week 9, with George Pickens out.
A tier below, Chris Olave is at 12–15%, and we expect him to go for about 11%, so our bid has a real chance. He caught 7 of 12 targets for 98 yards in Week 9. Tee Higgins is at 9–11%, with a likely price of about 9%. He scored twice in Week 9. Drake London is at 8–10%, and we expect him to go for about 11%. He caught all 5 of his targets for 68 yards and was chopped in 13.9% of our sample.
Running backs: Cook, Hubbard, Taylor and Warren
Our bids: 12–14%, 13–16%, 8–10% and 9–10% · Likely prices this week: about 16%, 12%, 17% and 12% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB5, RB6, RB7 and RB8
Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown on Monday night. He was chopped in 7.7% of our sample.
Hubbard is the one to bid on with confidence. We'd bid 13–16%, and we expect him to go for about 12%. He played 89% of Carolina's snaps in Week 9, with 16 carries for 79 yards and 4 catches, and we project 18.6 PPR points.
Taylor was chopped in 14.9% of our sample after a second quiet week: 13 carries for 46 yards and 5 catches for 18. He had 8 carries the week before.
Warren is back from Pittsburgh's bye and was chopped in 12.3% of our sample. He ran 17 times for 143 yards and a touchdown in Week 8.
Ashton Jeanty was chopped in 14.9% of our sample, but we wouldn't chase him. He had 6 carries for 25 yards in Week 9. Keep bids to 5–6%.
Kyren Williams was chopped in 14.9% of our sample. He ran 15 times for 45 yards and caught 3 passes in Week 9. We'd bid 5–6%, and we expect him to go for about 8%.
Baltimore: Henry and Flowers
Our bids: 8–10% and 3–4% · Likely prices this week: about 5% and 3% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB12 and WR15
Both were chopped a lot again, Henry in 15.1% of our sample and Flowers in 14.3%. Our bid is above the likely price on Henry and about even on Flowers, so either could land at our number.
Henry ran 17 times for 57 yards in Week 9 on 50% of Baltimore's snaps. Flowers caught 3 of 6 targets for 6 yards, a week after catching none of his 5. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve.
Tight ends: Bowers and McBride
Our bids: 6–7% and 6–7% · Likely prices this week: about 10% and 13% · Rest-of-season ranks: TE1 and TE2
Bowers played every snap in Week 9 and caught 7 of 8 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown.
McBride was chopped in 9.9% of our sample. He caught 7 of 8 targets for 54 yards in Week 9. Arizona may start rookie Carson Beck at quarterback this week, because Gardner Minshew likely needs elbow surgery.
Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta are the tight ends you're likeliest to find, chopped in 13.9% and 13.3% of our sample. Kraft caught 1 pass in Week 9, and LaPorta caught 4 for 32 yards. We'd bid 3–4% on LaPorta and keep Kraft to 1–2%.
Injuries to check before you bid
Josh Jacobs was chopped in 19.4% of our sample. He fractured a finger in Week 9 and is expected to miss about three weeks. We wouldn't spend on him this week.
George Pickens was chopped in 19.0% of our sample. He missed Week 9 with a hamstring injury, and his status for this week isn't clear yet.
Puka Nacua hurt his right knee late in Week 9, after catching 14 passes for 150 yards. His coach said Monday that he's likely headed to injured reserve and will miss at least four weeks.
Ladd McConkey was chopped in 15.7% of our sample. He missed Week 9 with back spasms and is day to day.
Cam Skattebo (hamstring), Mike Evans (Achilles), Garrett Wilson (concussion) and A.J. Brown (knee) all missed Week 9. Only bid on them if you can wait, because most teams' first injury reports for this week come out Wednesday. Michael Wilson is out for the season with a neck injury.
On bye this week: Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay
A player you claim from those teams won't score for you this week.
D'Andre Swift was chopped more than any other player, in 21.6% of our sample. He ran 12 times for 31 yards in Week 9, a week after scoring 3 touchdowns. We'd bid 3–4%, and we expect him to go for about 5%.
Saquon Barkley and Emeka Egbuka are on bye too, chopped in 12.9% and 12.5% of our sample. We'd bid 3–4% on Barkley and 2–3% on Egbuka.
Quarterbacks: keep it small
In a one-QB league, keep quarterback bids small unless your starter is hurt. The upgrade over your current starter is usually small. Prices are small too: top-12 quarterbacks sold for a median of 1% last week.
Josh Allen is the exception, and the one quarterback worth real money. He threw for 234 yards and a touchdown on Monday night, and he's still our QB1 for the rest of the season. We project 22.3 PPR points this week. We'd bid 11–14%, and we expect him to go for about 16%. He sold for far more than any other quarterback last week.
Jared Goff was chopped in about 1 in 6 leagues after throwing for 170 yards and no touchdowns. We'd bid 1–2%, and we expect him to go for about 1%. Joe Burrow is at 3–4% and Brock Purdy at 2–3%. Burrow threw for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 9, and Purdy threw for 2 and ran for another.
In Superflex, quarterbacks are starters and worth more.
Don't rush, even as prices fall
The budget still has to last through the cuts to come. In 2025, about 2 in 3 guillotine champions got their first top-5 running back or receiver in Week 9 or later. The median one they bought in Weeks 9 to 11 cost 11% of the starting budget. Read more in What 2025 guillotine champions did with their FAAB.
In our app, the League Overview page shows every team's chance to win your league, based on roster strength, points so far and FAAB left. If yours is near the top, you're in good shape, and you don't need to win every auction to build the best team. Connect your Sleeper league to see yours.
For what players actually sold for at each point in the season, see How much FAAB to bid in a guillotine league.
Near the bottom this week?
Being projected last isn't the end. In 2025, with 7 to 9 teams left in 18-team leagues, the lowest-projected team survived 74.7% of the time. That's about the chance ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Chiefs to beat the Falcons this week (76%, as of Tuesday, November 10). How to survive the chop each week
Who hit waivers after Week 9?
These are selected notable players from our verified Sleeper cut sample. Percentages show the share of completed Week 9 cuts that released each player, including bench and reserve players.
| Player | Share of verified cuts |
|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 21.6% |
| Josh Allen | 19.4% |
| Josh Jacobs | 19.4% |
| George Pickens | 19.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 17.7% |
| Jared Goff | 17.3% |
| Ladd McConkey | 15.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 15.3% |
| Derrick Henry | 15.1% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 14.9% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 14.9% |
| Kyren Williams | 14.9% |
| Zay Flowers | 14.3% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 14.1% |
| DJ Moore | 13.9% |
| Drake London | 13.9% |
| Jameson Williams | 13.9% |
| Tucker Kraft | 13.9% |
| Ollie Gordon II | 13.5% |
| Malik Nabers | 13.3% |
| Sam LaPorta | 13.3% |
| Saquon Barkley | 12.9% |
| Chase Brown | 12.7% |
| Emeka Egbuka | 12.5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12.3% |
| Jaylen Warren | 12.3% |
| Cam Skattebo | 11.9% |
| Mike Evans | 11.9% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.3% |
| Justin Jefferson | 11.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | 10.9% |
| Rashee Rice | 10.9% |
| A.J. Brown | 10.5% |
| George Kittle | 10.1% |
| Trey McBride | 9.9% |
| Michael Wilson | 9.7% |
| Breece Hall | 9.5% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9.5% |
| Chris Olave | 8.1% |
| James Cook III | 7.7% |
| Brock Bowers | 6.9% |
| Tee Higgins | 6.3% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6.0% |
| Brock Purdy | 5.4% |
| Bijan Robinson | 4.2% |
| Joe Burrow | 4.2% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3.0% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1.6% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1.6% |
As of 10:50 AM ET Tuesday. These percentages describe verified releases when we collected the sample. Availability depends on your league, its cut timing and any claims that have already processed.
Build your team's FAAB plan
Pick your targets and set what you'll spend on each. Your FAAB plan shows what you'd drop and how your lineup looks.
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About these recommendations
Weekly projections use our latest Week 10 PPR update, from 10:43 AM ET on November 10. Rest-of-season ranks use the same update. Our bid ranges are editorial recommendations informed by FAAB Insights, not universal limits. Check current injuries, league settings and your combined spending before placing claims.
Likely winning prices describe what other managers may pay, not what we recommend. They are estimates, not guarantees. Our bids assume an 18-team league with 9 teams left, where every team has its full starting budget. We start from last week's median winning bid for each player in our price report, then multiply it by how much the same player group's median price changed from Week 9 to Week 10 in 2025 (206 completed leagues), using the group the player was in when he was claimed. We leave a price unchanged where the 2025 price rose (top-12 quarterbacks), where either week had fewer than 10 sales, or for players outside the 8 groups. Players on bye this week get a further discount of 0.7 for receivers and 0.5 for tight ends, from this season's bye-week sales. Josh Allen keeps last week's price, because he sells for far more than other quarterbacks.
Some prices come from similar players. Tee Higgins and Joe Burrow each sold in 5 leagues last week, below the report's 10-league minimum. Jaylen Warren was on bye in Week 9, so we don't use his own price. For these we start from what other players at the same position and rank tier sold for last week, leaving out players whose teams were on bye.
Cut percentages come from completed Sleeper chop transactions that we matched to the lowest Week 9 score among teams still active and to a cleared roster. Leagues with more than 18 teams, more than one chop this week, or no completed release are excluded, as are leagues whose cut had not processed when we collected the sample. This is a sample of leagues that use our app, not a Sleeper-wide rate.
Snap counts, targets and box-score lines come from Sleeper's public game stats. Injury details come from team statements and coverage of them, checked at about 11:00 AM ET Tuesday. Most teams release their first injury reports for Week 10 on Wednesday. Price trends come from our season price page, after waivers that ran Wednesday, November 4. The same price charts are in the app: in FAAB Insights, open the Market Prices tab, pick a position and expand How RB prices have moved this season (or WR, TE or QB).