Week 8 Guillotine FAAB: Who Got Chopped and What We'd Bid
By Patrick · Survive The Chop ·
If Jahmyr Gibbs hit your waiver wire, he's the one to go after this week. We'd bid 17–21% of your starting budget on him. Kenneth Walker III and Bijan Robinson are right behind him at the same 17–21%.
You'll likely need a lot more than that to win any of them. We expect Gibbs to go for about 54% of a starting budget. That's why the bid guide has two numbers. The first is what he's worth to your team. The second is what it will likely take to win him.
Not every pick is a long shot, though. Below the bid guide are five players where our bid already matches the going price.
These bids use Tuesday morning projections. For bids built for your own roster on the latest projections, check the app this afternoon.
Week 8 bid guide
Both numbers are a percentage of your starting FAAB budget. On a $1,000 budget, 15% is $150. We assume PPR scoring and one starting quarterback.
| Player | Our bid | Likely price this week | Best fit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17–21% | about 54% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Kenneth Walker III | 17–21% | about 48% (similar players) | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Bijan Robinson | 17–21% | about 44% | An RB1 you can start every week |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 15–19% | about 35% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| Puka Nacua | 15–18% | about 35% | A WR1 you can start every week |
| James Cook III | 12–15% | about 24% | A starting running back |
| Justin Jefferson | 11–14% | about 23% | A starting receiver |
| Kyren Williams | 10–13% | about 21% | A starting running back |
| Brock Bowers | 9–11% | about 16% | The top tight end |
| Derrick Henry | 9–11% | about 24% | A starting running back |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9–11% | about 16% | A starting running back |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 8–10% | about 15% | A starting receiver |
| Christian Watson | 8–10% | about 14% | A starting receiver |
These are estimates. Top running backs have held their price this season so far (55% in Week 2, 56% last week), so the estimate may be low for them.
Gibbs and Robinson will likely go for about 54% and 44%. We wouldn't pay that this early.
Go toward the top of a range if you're close to the chopping block. Stay near the bottom if your lineup is safe. Set a total before you enter several claims.
Waiver bids are blind, and not every league has a big spender. So bid your number even when the likely price is much higher. If it lands, you got a starter at a good price. If it doesn't, your FAAB plan can show you cheaper players who fill the same spot.
Why our bids look low. As the league's FAAB drains, prices fall toward our numbers. In 2025, by Weeks 12 to 14, a bid of a fifth of the league's average FAAB would have won about 4 in 9 top-5 running back and receiver auctions. We go through the numbers in Why our FAAB bids look low.
Likely prices are our estimates of what it will take to win each player this week, built from our weekly FAAB price report.
How prices have moved this season
Since Week 2, prices have come down for 5 of the 8 player groups we track. Top-3 receivers went from a median of 59% of the starting budget to 40% last week, and running backs ranked 13 to 24 went from 20% to 8%. The top 3 running backs are the exception: 55% in Week 2 and 56% last week.
Last year, most prices were cut in half by Week 10
Last year, this is when prices fell. Between Weeks 8 and 10 of 2025, 6 of our 8 player groups sold for less than half their Week 2 to 5 price. Wednesday's waivers will show if this season follows. Here's each group's price last week, next to what the same group sold for in Weeks 8, 9 and 10 last year.
| Player group | This season, Week 7 | 2025, Week 8 | 2025, Week 9 | 2025, Week 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-3 running backs | 56% | 42% | 35% | 25% |
| Running backs ranked 4–12 | 28% | 20% | 18% | 14% |
| Running backs ranked 13–24 | 8% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
| Top-3 receivers | 40% | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Receivers ranked 4–12 | 28% | 15% | 11% | 8% |
| Receivers ranked 13–24 | 11% | 6% | 4% | 3% |
| Top-6 tight ends | 15% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Top-12 quarterbacks | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
That's last year's pattern, not a prediction. The 2025 prices come from 206 completed leagues. We don't have 2025 rest-of-season rankings, so those groups use each player's average weekly ranking.
To see every week side by side, read How guillotine FAAB prices have changed this season. The same charts are in the app, under Market Prices in FAAB Insights.
Players you can win
For these five, our bid is at or above the likely winning price. Each has a real chance of landing at our number.
| Player | Our bid | Likely price this week | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 3–4% | about 1% | A starting quarterback upgrade |
| Jayden Daniels | 3–4% | about 1% | A starting quarterback upgrade |
| Germie Bernard | 3–4% | about 1% | A receiver who plays almost every snap |
| Jordan Mason | 2–3% | about 1% | Running back depth |
| Rome Odunze | 2–3% | about 2% | Receiver depth |
Jordan Love is the easiest upgrade if your quarterback is shaky. He threw for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, with an interception, in Week 7. He's our QB5 for the rest of the season.
Jayden Daniels has the highest projection of the five, at 20.0 PPR points this week. In Week 6, his last game before Washington's bye, he threw for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Only chase a quarterback if yours is a weak spot.
Germie Bernard barely leaves the field. He played 91% of Pittsburgh's snaps in Week 7 but had a quiet 3 catches on 5 targets for 27 yards. The week before, he caught 11 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Jordan Mason led Minnesota's backfield in Week 7, with 15 carries for 68 yards. He's cheap depth with a real role.
Rome Odunze is a cheap receiver who plays nearly every down. He turned 5 targets into 4 catches and 69 yards in Week 7, on 94% of Chicago's snaps.
Higher up the ranks, likely prices run well above our bids, so those players aren't on this list.
Jahmyr Gibbs: our top target
Our bid: 17–21% · Likely price this week: about 54% · Rest-of-season rank: RB1
Gibbs is the workhorse you want. He ran 29 times for 116 yards and caught 5 passes for 27 more in Week 7, on 90% of Detroit's snaps. We project 19.4 PPR points this week.
He's the best player on this list. Put in your 17–21% and see if it lands.
Kenneth Walker III and Bijan Robinson
Our bids: 17–21% each · Likely prices this week: about 48% and 44% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB2 and RB3
Of the top three backs, Walker is the one you're likeliest to see. He was chopped in 15.2% of our sample, about twice as often as Gibbs or Robinson. Don't read much into his quiet Week 7, 14 carries for 36 yards. The week before, he ran for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. We project 19.5 PPR points this week.
Robinson gets work as a runner and a receiver. He ran 20 times for 63 yards and caught all 5 targets for 59 more in Week 7, on 80% of Atlanta's snaps. We project 19.8 PPR points this week.
Receivers: Chase, Nacua and Jefferson
Our bids: 15–19%, 15–18% and 11–14% · Likely prices this week: about 35%, 35% and 23% · Rest-of-season ranks: WR2, WR4 and WR7
Chase is the best receiver on this list and our WR2 the rest of the way. He caught 5 of 7 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown in Week 7.
Nacua got the most targets of the three in Week 7. He caught 8 of 10 for 68 yards and a touchdown, and we project 19.5 PPR points this week.
Jefferson is the one you're likeliest to find, chopped in 12.0% of our sample. He played 93% of Minnesota's snaps in Week 7 but caught only 4 of 7 targets for 44 yards.
A tier below, Christian Watson and Tetairoa McMillan are both starting receivers, at 8–10% each. Watson caught 5 of 8 targets for 57 yards in Week 7, and McMillan caught 4 of 6 for 40. We expect them to go for about 14% and 15%.
Garrett Wilson was chopped in 15.5% of our sample, but he's been quiet. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 26 yards in Week 7. We'd bid 6–7%, and we expect him to go for about 14%.
Running backs: Henry, Cook, Williams and Hubbard
Our bids: 9–11%, 12–15%, 10–13% and 9–11% · Likely prices this week: about 24%, 24%, 21% and 16% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB7, RB5, RB9 and RB8
Henry is the back you're most likely to find. He was chopped in 20.5% of our sample, more than any player. He ran 17 times for 45 yards in Week 7, on 51% of Baltimore's snaps, after 58% the week before.
Cook is the highest-ranked back in this group, at RB5. Buffalo was on bye in Week 7. In Week 6, he ran 22 times for 95 yards and a touchdown and caught 3 passes for 58 yards. He was chopped in 13.2% of our sample.
Williams just had a big game. He ran 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown in Week 7, and we project 17.7 PPR points this week.
Hubbard's role is the one to watch. He played 61% of Carolina's snaps in Week 7, down from 94% the week before, with 7 carries for 33 yards and 4 catches for 27. He was chopped in 11.1% of our sample.
Aaron Jones was chopped in 18.0% of our sample, but Jordan Mason led Minnesota's backfield in Week 7. Mason played 64% of the snaps, Jones 25%. Keep bids on Jones to about 2%.
Tight ends: Bowers and LaPorta
Our bids: 9–11% and 3–4% · Likely prices this week: about 16% and 5% · Rest-of-season ranks: TE1 and TE4
Bowers is the tight end worth paying for. He caught 6 of 8 targets for 73 yards in Week 7, and we project 16.5 PPR points this week.
LaPorta is the cheaper option after a quiet week. He caught 1 of 2 targets for 18 yards in Week 7, even though he played 97% of Detroit's snaps. He was chopped in 17.5% of our sample. We'd bid 3–4%, and go toward the top of that only if tight end is your weakest spot.
Injuries to check before you bid
Emeka Egbuka (concussion), Lamar Jackson (ankle), Breece Hall (quadriceps), DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Tyler Warren (groin) were each chopped in some leagues, and none of them played in Week 7. Their teams' first injury reports for this week come out Wednesday. Only bid on them if you can wait.
On bye this week: Houston, New Orleans, the Giants and San Francisco
A player you claim from those teams won't score for you this week.
Nico Collins is the bye-week player you're most likely to see. He was chopped in 19.8% of our sample, second only to Henry. He caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards in Week 7. He's our WR10 for the rest of the season, and we'd bid 6–7% if your lineup is safe this week. We expect him to go for about 14%.
Quarterbacks: keep it small
In a one-QB league, keep quarterback bids small unless your starter is hurt. The upgrade over your current starter is usually small.
Josh Allen is the exception, and the one quarterback worth real money. He was chopped in about 1 in 8 leagues and is our QB1 for the rest of the season. In Week 6, before Buffalo's bye, he threw for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. We'd bid 11–13%, and we expect him to go for about 27%.
Patrick Mahomes and Bryce Young were chopped in about 1 in 7 and 1 in 6 leagues. Mahomes threw for 165 yards and an interception in Week 7, and Young threw for 163 yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Keep bids to 1–2% on Mahomes and about 1% on Young. We expect both to go for about 1%.
In Superflex, quarterbacks are starters and worth more.
It's still early
Champions don't usually buy their stars this early. In 2025, about 2 in 3 guillotine champions got their first top-5 running back or receiver in Week 9 or later. The median one they bought in Weeks 9 to 11 cost 11% of the starting budget. Read more in What 2025 guillotine champions did with their FAAB.
In our app, the League Overview page shows every team's chance to win your league, based on roster strength, points so far and FAAB left. If yours is near the top, you're in good shape, and you don't need to win every auction to build the best team. Connect your Sleeper league to see yours.
For what players actually sold for at each point in the season, see How much FAAB to bid in a guillotine league.
Near the bottom this week?
Being projected last isn't the end. In 2025, with 10 to 13 teams left in 18-team leagues, the lowest-projected team survived 76.8% of the time. That's about the chance ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Cowboys to beat the Cardinals this week (76%, as of Tuesday, October 27). How to survive the chop each week
Who hit waivers after Week 7?
These are selected notable players from our verified Sleeper cut sample. Percentages show the share of completed Week 7 cuts that released each player, including bench and reserve players.
| Player | Share of verified cuts |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20.5% |
| Nico Collins | 19.8% |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 18.0% |
| Sam LaPorta | 17.5% |
| Bryce Young | 16.4% |
| Garrett Wilson | 15.5% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 15.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 15.2% |
| Isaiah Likely | 14.8% |
| Jalen Coker | 13.6% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.6% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 13.4% |
| Chase Brown | 13.4% |
| Germie Bernard | 13.2% |
| James Cook III | 13.2% |
| Parker Washington | 13.2% |
| A.J. Brown | 12.7% |
| Tyler Warren | 12.7% |
| Josh Allen | 12.5% |
| Justin Jefferson | 12.0% |
| Emeka Egbuka | 11.6% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.1% |
| Brock Purdy | 10.7% |
| Lamar Jackson | 10.5% |
| Jordan Love | 10.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 10.0% |
| Christian Watson | 9.1% |
| Jordan Mason | 9.1% |
| Brock Bowers | 8.0% |
| Jayden Daniels | 8.0% |
| Rome Odunze | 7.5% |
| Bijan Robinson | 7.3% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6.8% |
As of 10:15 AM ET Tuesday. These percentages describe verified releases when we collected the sample. Availability depends on your league, its cut timing and any claims that have already processed.
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About these recommendations
Ranks and projections use our latest Week 8 PPR update, from 10:21 AM ET on October 27. Our bid ranges are editorial recommendations informed by FAAB Insights, not universal limits. Check current injuries, league settings and your combined spending before placing claims.
Likely winning prices describe what other managers may pay, not what we recommend. They are estimates, not guarantees. Where a player appears in last week's price report, we use his median winning bid there. Otherwise we use what similar players sold for: the median winning bid in last week's waivers for players at the same position and rank tier, ranked at the time of the claim. Our bids assume an 18-team league with 11 teams left. Twelve of the 13 players in the bid guide are in that report. Kenneth Walker III sold in only 9 leagues last week, below the report's 10-league minimum, so his likely price is what the top 3 running backs sold for. All five players you can win sold last week, so their likely price starts from their own sold price. This week, we lowered last week's prices by how much each group fell from Week 7 to Week 8 last season: we multiply each of those prices by how much the same player group's median price changed from Week 7 to Week 8 in 2025 (206 completed leagues), using the group the player was in when he was claimed. We leave a price unchanged where the 2025 price rose (quarterbacks), where either week had fewer than 10 sales, or for players outside the 8 groups.
Cut percentages come from completed Sleeper chop transactions that we matched to the lowest Week 7 score among teams still active and to a cleared roster. Leagues with more than 18 teams, more than one chop this week, or no completed release are excluded, as are leagues whose cut had not processed when we collected the sample. This is a sample of leagues that use our app, not a Sleeper-wide rate.
Snap counts, targets and box-score lines come from Sleeper's public game stats. Injury types come from team reports and coverage of them, checked at about 10:45 AM ET Tuesday. Teams release their first injury reports for Week 8 on Wednesday. Price trends come from our season price page, after waivers that ran Wednesday, October 21. The same price charts are in the app: in FAAB Insights, open the Market Prices tab, pick a position and expand How RB prices have moved this season (or WR, TE or QB).