Week 9 Guillotine FAAB: Who Got Chopped and What We'd Bid

By Patrick · Survive The Chop · November 3, 2026

If Jahmyr Gibbs hit your waiver wire, he's the one to go after again. We'd bid 19–23% of your starting budget on him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is next at 18–21%.

The player you're most likely to see is Zay Flowers, chopped in nearly 1 in 4 leagues. We'd be careful with him. Lamar Jackson is headed to injured reserve, and Baltimore may be down to its third quarterback on Thursday.

Winning the biggest names will still take a lot more than we'd pay. We expect Gibbs to go for about 42% of a starting budget. That's why the bid guide has two numbers. The first is what he's worth to your team. The second is what it will likely take to win him.

Prices did drop last week, though, and below the bid guide are five players where our bid already matches the going price.

These bids use Tuesday morning projections. For bids built for your own roster on the latest projections, check the app this afternoon.

Week 9 bid guide

Both numbers are a percentage of your starting FAAB budget. On a $1,000 budget, 15% is $150. We assume PPR scoring and one starting quarterback.

These are estimates, built from what last year's prices did between Weeks 8 and 9. That's last year's pattern, not a promise.

Gibbs and Smith-Njigba will likely go for about 42% and 47%. We wouldn't pay that this early.

Go toward the top of a range if you're close to the chopping block. Stay near the bottom if your lineup is safe. Set a total before you enter several claims.

Waiver bids are blind, and not every league has a big spender. So bid your number even when the likely price is much higher. If it lands, you got a starter at a good price. If it doesn't, your FAAB plan can show you cheaper players who fill the same spot.

Why our bids look low. As the league's FAAB drains, prices fall toward our numbers. In 2025, by Weeks 12 to 14, a bid of a fifth of the league's average FAAB would have won about 4 in 9 top-5 running back and receiver auctions. We go through the numbers in Why our FAAB bids look low.

Likely prices are our estimates of what it will take to win each player this week, built from our weekly FAAB price report.

How prices have moved this season

Prices fell hard in last week's waivers. Top-3 running backs dropped from 56% of the starting budget to 43%. Receivers ranked 4 to 12 went from 28% to 16%, and top-6 tight ends from 15% to 6%.

That put this season almost on top of last season. In 7 of our 8 player groups, last week's price was within 2 points of what the same group sold for in Week 8 of 2025. Top-3 receivers are the exception, at 36% against 30%.

Last season's prices from here

Last year, prices kept falling from this point. By Week 10 of 2025, top-3 running backs were selling for 25%, and receivers ranked 4 to 12 for 8%. Here's each group's price last week, next to what the same group sold for in Weeks 8, 9 and 10 last year.

That's last year's pattern, not a promise. The 2025 prices come from 206 completed leagues. We don't have 2025 rest-of-season rankings, so those groups use each player's average weekly ranking.

To see every week side by side, read How guillotine FAAB prices have changed this season. The same charts are in the app, under Market Prices in FAAB Insights.

Players you can win

For these five, our bid is at or above the likely winning price. Each has a real chance of landing at our number.

Chase Brown is the best deal on this list. Cincinnati threw him 9 passes in Week 8, and he caught 8 of them for 46 yards to go with 55 on the ground. We project 16.4 PPR points, the most of the non-quarterbacks here.

Tetairoa McMillan led Carolina with 11 targets in Week 8 and caught 6 for 58 yards. Our bid and the likely price are about even here, so this one could go either way.

Sam LaPorta is the tight end you're likeliest to find, chopped in 14.1% of our sample. The catches haven't come lately, just 3 for 33 yards in Week 8, but he played 93% of Detroit's snaps.

Rashee Rice may not stay this cheap. He came back from a hamstring injury in Week 8 and caught 7 of 8 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Our estimate comes from sales before that game, so it could be low.

Jared Goff is the quarterback to chase if yours is a weak spot. Skip past his 176 yards in Week 8. The week before, he threw for 303 and 2 touchdowns, and this week he gets Miami.

Higher up the ranks, likely prices run well above our bids, so those players aren't on this list.

Jahmyr Gibbs: our top target

Our bid: 19–23% · Likely price this week: about 42% · Rest-of-season rank: RB1

No running back in this guide ran for more in Week 8. Gibbs had 23 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown, a week after 29 carries for 116 yards. We project 23.3 PPR points for him this week, the most of anyone here.

Put in your 19–23% and see if it lands.

Walker, McCaffrey and Robinson

Our bids: 16–19%, 16–19% and 14–17% · Likely prices this week: about 36%, 36% and 38% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB2, RB3 and RB4

Walker is the safest of the three. He played 81% of Kansas City's snaps in Week 8, with 21 carries for 69 yards and 4 catches.

McCaffrey is the one you're more likely to find, chopped in 15.8% of our sample. Reports after Week 7 called his injury a mild hamstring strain, and San Francisco's bye gave him a week off. The 49ers' first report comes out Wednesday, so go toward the bottom of the range if you can't wait for it.

Don't read much into Robinson's Week 8. He got 19 carries for 76 yards on 81% of Atlanta's snaps but only 1 target, after catching all 5 for 59 yards the week before. He was chopped in 16.0% of our sample.

Receivers: Smith-Njigba, St. Brown, Lamb and Nabers

Our bids: 18–21%, 14–17%, 13–16% and 12–15% · Likely prices this week: about 47%, 35%, 24% and 25% · Rest-of-season ranks: WR1, WR3, WR6 and WR5

Smith-Njigba is the best receiver here and the most expensive player in this guide. He caught 6 of 11 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown in Week 8, his seventh 100-yard game in 8 this season.

St. Brown needs a look at Detroit's report first. Medical staff checked him for a head injury in Week 8, and he came back to finish with 7 catches for 46 yards. He was chopped in 10.9% of our sample.

Lamb keeps getting the ball even when the yards don't follow. He had 11 targets in Week 8 and turned them into 7 catches for 58 yards. The week before, it was 12 targets and 2 touchdowns.

Nabers was chopped in 13.9% of our sample. The Giants were on bye last week, so expect him to cost more now that he's playing. His last game was 7 catches for 111 yards in Week 7.

A tier below, Justin Jefferson is at 9–11%, and we expect him to go for about 14%. He played 96% of Minnesota's snaps in Week 8 and caught 5 of 9 targets for 33 yards and a touchdown. Olave is back from New Orleans' bye after 6 catches for 56 yards in Week 7. Nico Collins is back from Houston's, chopped in 9.2% of our sample, after catching 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards in Week 7. We'd bid 9–10%, and we expect him to go for about 13%.

Two more receivers come with warnings. Drake London was chopped in 16.2% of our sample and has gone through a concussion check in each of the last two games, passing both. He caught 1 pass for 8 yards in Week 8. We'd bid 10–12%, expect him to go for about 15%, and check Atlanta's report first.

Parker Washington was chopped in 16.4% of our sample but caught only 1 pass in Week 8. We'd bid 7–8%, and we expect him to go for about 11%. Jacksonville plays Thursday, so he'd go into your lineup right after waivers run.

Baltimore: Flowers and Henry

Our bids: 11–14% and 8–10% · Likely prices this week: about 18% and 19% · Rest-of-season ranks: WR11 and RB10

Stay near the bottom of the range on both. Jackson hurt his right thumb on his first play back in Week 8, and he's having surgery. Tyler Huntley probably won't play Thursday because of a toe injury, his coach said. That leaves Joe Fagnano, who is dealing with an ankle injury himself and has "a chance" to play.

Flowers was chopped more than any player, in 23.0% of our sample. He caught none of his 5 targets in Week 8, and the week before he caught 8 for 137 yards and a touchdown. That's the range, and it may get wider with a new quarterback.

Henry should hold up better, because Baltimore can still hand him the ball. His snaps are the concern: 45% in Week 8, with 11 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown.

Running backs: Taylor, Williams, Cook and Javonte Williams

Our bids: 8–10%, 10–12%, 10–12% and 8–10% · Likely prices this week: about 22%, 20%, 28% and 14% · Rest-of-season ranks: RB6, RB9, RB5 and RB8

Taylor is the back you're most likely to see, chopped in 19.2% of our sample. Don't let his 8 carries for 23 yards scare you off. Indianapolis pulled its starters late in a blowout, and he ran 18 times for 95 yards and a touchdown the week before.

Kyren Williams has been steady. He scored in each of the last two weeks, with 16 carries both times, and we project 16.6 PPR points this week.

Cook ran 21 times for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 before a hard hit sent him to the medical tent. He was cleared to return, so check Buffalo's report. Buffalo plays Monday night, so you'll have all week to watch his status.

Javonte Williams got plenty of work in Week 8 but not much room: 24 carries for 56 yards. He was chopped in 12.4% of our sample.

Ashton Jeanty was chopped in 11.9% of our sample, but we wouldn't chase him. Mike Washington took over as the Raiders' lead runner in Week 8, and Jeanty had just 2 carries on 40% of the snaps. Keep bids to 5–6%.

Tight ends: McBride and Kittle

Our bids: 8–10% and 6–7% · Rest-of-season ranks: TE2 and TE3

McBride barely leaves the field. He played 95% of Arizona's snaps in Week 8 and caught 7 of 8 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Kittle is the one you're more likely to see, chopped in 13.4% of our sample. He caught 8 of 10 targets for 88 yards in Week 7, before San Francisco's bye. We'd bid 6–7%, and we expect him to go for more than that now that the 49ers are back.

Injuries to check before you bid

Lamar Jackson was chopped in 22.4% of our sample, second only to Flowers. With surgery and injured reserve ahead, we wouldn't spend on him this week.

Jeremiyah Love (ankle) was chopped in 16.0% of our sample. He hurt his ankle in Week 8, and his coach called it a new injury. A.J. Brown (knee and ankle) missed Week 8, and his coach said "we'll see" about practice this week. DeVonta Smith and Emeka Egbuka missed Week 8 too. Mike Evans (Achilles) was expected back after San Francisco's bye. Only bid on them if you can wait, because most teams' first injury reports for this week come out Wednesday.

Breece Hall (quadriceps) is the good news. The Jets expect him back against Kansas City, and their offensive coordinator assumes he stays the lead back.

On bye this week: Pittsburgh and Tennessee

A player you claim from those teams won't score for you this week.

DK Metcalf is the bye-week player you're most likely to see, chopped in 13.9% of our sample. He caught 1 pass for 4 yards in Week 8. Keep it to 1–2% if your lineup is safe this week, and we expect him to go for about 2%.

Quarterbacks: keep it small

In a one-QB league, keep quarterback bids small unless your starter is hurt. The upgrade over your current starter is usually small. Prices are small too: top-12 quarterbacks sold for a median of 2% last week.

Josh Allen is the exception, and the one quarterback worth real money. He was chopped in about 1 in 17 leagues and is our QB1 for the rest of the season. He threw for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for another in Week 8. We'd bid 7–8%, and we expect him to go for about 9%. Treat that as a rough guess. Last year's quarterback drop came from a group selling for about 2%, and Allen sells for a lot more than that.

Brock Purdy was chopped in about 1 in 10 leagues and comes back from San Francisco's bye as our QB3. We'd bid 5–6%, and we expect him to go for about 7%. Jayden Daniels and Dak Prescott are cheaper ways to fill the spot, at about 2% each, and we expect both to go for about 1%.

In Superflex, quarterbacks are starters and worth more.

Don't rush, even as prices fall

It's still early, and the budget has to last through a lot more cuts. In 2025, about 2 in 3 guillotine champions got their first top-5 running back or receiver in Week 9 or later. The median one they bought in Weeks 9 to 11 cost 11% of the starting budget. Read more in What 2025 guillotine champions did with their FAAB.

In our app, the League Overview page shows every team's chance to win your league, based on roster strength, points so far and FAAB left. If yours is near the top, you're in good shape, and you don't need to win every auction to build the best team. Connect your Sleeper league to see yours.

For what players actually sold for at each point in the season, see How much FAAB to bid in a guillotine league.

Near the bottom this week?

Being projected last isn't the end. In 2025, with 10 to 13 teams left in 18-team leagues, the lowest-projected team survived 76.8% of the time. That's about the chance ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Lions to beat the Dolphins this week (78%, as of Tuesday, November 3). How to survive the chop each week

Who hit waivers after Week 8?

These are selected notable players from our verified Sleeper cut sample. Percentages show the share of completed Week 8 cuts that released each player, including bench and reserve players.

As of 8:35 AM ET Tuesday. These percentages describe verified releases when we collected the sample. Availability depends on your league, its cut timing and any claims that have already processed.

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